Vitals: Founded 2016, Peak val ≈ $12 B (2022), Raised $14 B+ debt & equity

•Nov 2024: Chapter 11 (US), Mar 2025: bankruptcy in Sweden

What Went Right

  1. First EU gigafactory vision; VW, BMW, IKEA on the cap table.
  2. ESG narrative + €1 B EU loans; positioned as “Europe’s CATL.”

Where the Blood Flow Stopped

  1. Cap-ex overreach – Skellefteå plant delivered 1 GWh vs 16 GWh plan; BMW cancelled $2 B contract.
  2. Debt avalanche – $5.8 B liabilities; rising rates killed refinancing.
  3. Slow scale, fast burn – Cost overruns + supply-chain delays > $500 M/quarter.
  4. Price war with China – CATL & BYD packs 30 % cheaper by 2024.
  5. Subsidy gap – EU support small vs Chinese state aid; cash runway vanished.

Prescription

✅ Stage cap-ex in proof blocks (1 → 4 → 16 GWh), not moon-shot.

✅ Hedge commodity risk early (lithium, nickel) with supply contracts.

✅ Match debt tenor to production milestones—no revenues, no billion-dollar loans.

One Take-away

“Build a Lego tower one brick at a time—don’t pour all the glue before you know it stands.”

Do this week:

  1. List your next big spend (>10 % of annual budget).
  2. Break it into 3 milestones that each create usable value.
  3. Fund only the first milestone—prove it stands, then keep stacking.

Next Sunday’s slab? Nominate a unicorn below 👇

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on public info and my own interpretation; facts may evolve and any errors are mine alone.